Natural Gas Storage Report - EIA report natural gas released on Feb-14

Natural gas futures have been trying to gain strength this week but seems like upside is limited. NG futures have not been able to break through resistance and have been trading in the same zone.

NG futures opened with strength this morning today on MCX and tried to gain momentum but the upside seemed limited.
Natural Gas Storage Report - Generatebucks
Natural Gas Storage Report - Generatebucks

Weather forecast

Weather reports are turning out to be bearish, hence we see limited upside. According to NatGasWeather for February 13 to 19, this weekend and next weekend will be quite chilly as cold air sweeps across US. Overall, national demand will be moderate through Thursday, then high Friday through next week.

Prices have been in range with little upside since the weather reports predict warmer than expected weather.

Weather will have to change drastically and this could allow the market to gain momentum else I don’t expect much upside.

Natural Gas Storage report released today

Looking at this week NG storage report, Bloomberg was predicting a draw in the range of 77-106 Bcf, with a median draw of 82 Bcf. Reuters was looking for a draw range of 77-106 Bcf, with a median draw of 84 Bcf. The Wall Street Journal was predicting an average withdrawal of 85 Bcf. EBW Analytics was expecting a draw of 83 Bcf and Natural Gas Intelligence analysts call for a 73 Bcf withdrawal.

Working gas in storage was 1,882 Bcf as of Friday, February 8, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 78 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 30 Bcf less than last year at this time and 333 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,215 Bcf. At 1,882 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Natural gas storage report was in-line with expectations and this will not affect the prices this week or the next

Natural Gas price forecast

I expect ng futures to trade in a range from 185 to 195 till we see a break out. I would not advise traders to create a long position. As mentioned that upside is limited and we might not see a big rally unless weather forecast predicts colder weather for few days.

I would advise a sell on rise strategy. I would wait and sit for the right opportunity to sell. Any price above 200 is a great for creating short position.

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