Crude Oil & Natural Gas price forecast for 4th Sep 2018 -

Natural Gas and Crude Oil Price Forecast

Yesterday was US holiday and we saw prices trading lower. On Monday, there were less investors in the market, so we saw natural gas prices trading slowly and lower than last week.

Looking at last week EIA reports, sellers were expected to dominate the market but market followed a bullish trend.  

On Friday, MCX prices went up to 206.50 for September contract and 209.4 for the October contract. It seems buyers were counting on strong demand and market sentiments were supported by storage issues ahead of the withdrawal season which begins in November.

Looking at the new weather forecast, we do expected warmer temperatures in few parts of US and this might create a little demand but currently that has been met by the supply

Looking at Intraday today, Natural gas prices are expected to follow bearish trend or trade sideways based on traders’ sentiments.

The movement in Indian Rupee would play a significant role today in this market. We may prices trading higher on MCX if Rupee decline further.  

Traders have been trading conformable for a while in this market since it is following the same range and we do see a strong support at 200 at MCX.
Natural Gas Price Forecast -
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For today, I would suggest to initiate short positions on rise. Traders can create short positions around 204-205 for target of 202-201 in upcoming sessions. Would advise to follow a strict stop loss of 207

Market is currently planning to retest its support levels and we can expect a change in trend if the EIA report this Thursday shows lowers inventory

Crude Oil Price forecast

We saw Crude Oil prices touching skies last week and not much changed on Monday. Crude Oil September contract saw a high of 5018 at MCX
With Indian Rupee trading at 71.21 (almost 11% decline this year) Crude Oil Markets are expected to trade higher and we may see encounter record level highs.

Why Crude Oil is Markets so Volatile?

We saw Crude Oil prices trading higher last week majorly due to risks of supply disruptions from places such as Venezuela, Africa, and Iran triggered expectations of a tightening market.

While sanctions against Iran are beginning to impact oil supply, lifting crude prices amid a fall in U.S. crude inventories, Iraq is waiting in the wings, ready to increase its crude oil exports in anticipation of slipping Iranian oil exports waiting only on the go-ahead from OPEC and this could provide to be a limiting factor in Crude oil price growth.

On Monday, we saw limited bullish trend in the international market majorly due to high production from OPEC and US but it translated to gain on MCX, due to decline in Rupee.

For Intraday, I would expect some correction and profit booking so we should expect prices around 4980. I would suggest to buy crude on dips for short target. Markets is quite volatile and playing safe should always be good strategy.

Enter into a long position at 4985 for target of 5030 and SL of 4970.

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